aLiEnS

No one is saying Elon Musk, or others like him, are a nut. Just like no one is saying that all who have claimed UFO sightings are liars. Try to argue your point instead of making up non-existent points in an attempt to define the argument of any opposing viewpoint. As SaulGoodman has said in the past, you're making Straw Man arguments.

However, what Elon Musk states is just his subjective opinion. I didn't see any scientific study or anything other than his personal opinion that backs up what he says about probability.

From Wikipedia:

Although Musk believes "there is a good chance that there is simple life on other planets," he "questions whether there is other intelligent life in the known universe."[185] Musk later clarified his "hope that there is other intelligent life in the known universe," and stated that it is "probably more likely than not, but that's a complete guess."[186]



Musk has also considered the simulation hypothesis as a potential solution to the Fermi paradox:



The absence of any noticeable life may be an argument in favour of us being in a simulation.... Like when you're playing an adventure game, and you can see the stars in the background, but you can't ever get there. If it's not a simulation, then maybe we're in a lab and there's some advanced alien civilization that's just watching how we develop, out of curiosity, like mould in a petri dish.... If you look at our current technology level, something strange has to happen to civilizations, and I mean strange in a bad way. ... And it could be that there are a whole lot of dead, one-planet civilizations.[187]

Musk himself admits he's just guessing. Probability is not based on guessing. It is something quantifiable. Nothing wrong with guessing, but it's all just subjective opinion without any scientific basis. He, like you, are using the word "probable" very loosely. We all do, depending on the topic being discussed, like if I say I'm probably going to watch a movie tonight, but that's a lot different than a weather forecaster saying rain is probable or other scientists ascertaining the probability of life outside of Earth through scientific methods.

Of course you're entitled to your subjective opinion, but don't confuse it with, or try to pass it off as "probability" unless, like a meteorologist or other scientist, you can use science to back up your opinion. And try to back up your own arguments instead of quickly falling back on and repeating straw man arguments.

Are you just trolling or playing one of those games you admit to with the repeated straw man argument about "lies, delusions, etc.?"

Your straw man argument has already been addressed, so I'm left to conclude that you're either unable to address actual counterpoint made from an opposing point of view and this inability leaves you with no option but to ignore counterpoints and create straw man arguments so you can continue making your point without having to address actual counterpoints. Or you're just trolling. Either way.... I'll be happy to read when you can offer something other than subjective opinion as it's an interesting topic worthy of serious discussion. Or it could just continue with trying to pass off personal opinion as superior to a scientific approach. Your call.

www.dailygrail.com/2018/05/jacques-vallee-and-the-mystery-of-the-alien-alloys/

interesting.

he of course is delusional or lying. no way aliens exist. the young human race are the pinnacle of evolution in this ancient and vast universe.

so what if their are billions if not trillions of chances for conditions to exist like on earth.. Humans are special so that rules out aliens

for sure. he may be spot on. you cant know what you dont know and in this area most of us dont really know though some might know but those in the know may knowingly or unknowingly be part of some vast conspiracy to give the impression of contact being a lie to cover up the reality of contact or vice versa

but in the end  
the metal in question is either extra terrestrial or not. what would the third option be? future humans time traveling?

for sure it is.. i feel aliens are more likely then time traveling humans though we could have both. that is if you believe time travel is possible. thats more of a stretch then aliens though. Aliens dont violate our current understanding of physics

maybe humans turn more reptile in the future or turn into the grays.

i personally think that time is just another part of the coordinate system along with spacial coordinates and not linear though i think new time streams are created it you travel back in time so you dont return to the stream you left.. just the one you created when you came back in time which may be real close to the one you left depending on the effect you had on events and i think realities merge so if you changed nothing they would merge back into one when you return

lork, you keep disingenuously try to frame the discussion. Nowhere in that study I linked to, and nowhere here on Jambase has anyone accused anyone of lying or being delusional, yet you continuously try to make it as if that's the what people are saying. You're the only one who is talking about lying and delusion. You, who frequently accuse people of putting words in your mouth, are doing just that. Show us one link where anyone has said anything about lying and delusion other than you.

No one has said that aliens don't exist or that it's not possible for them to exist. If you read the link and read what's being said here, what's being talked about is probability, not possibility. No one is trying to disprove anything. The studies I've linked to don't even mention the sightings of Unidentified F.O.'s. so why do you keep falsely accusing people of suggesting that people are lying or delusional? The study deals only with probability. The study does not even mention UFO's. The study does not accuse anyone of being a liar or delusional. You are creating straw man arguments. Try reading and addressing what people are actually saying instead of making things up because it is easier for you to debate against the straw man arguments you create.

You make it sound like some here and science itself is out to disprove something when that's obviously not the case. I'd say it's impossible to prove that aliens don't exist and if you can link to something either here or elsewhere that shows anyone trying to disprove the existence of aliens through science I'd be open to reading it.

Your argument sounds similar to someone saying scientists who've concluded that water freezes at 32 degrees must therefore be against temperatures above 32 simply because of their observations and conclusions. You sound like the equivalent of those who deny the science of climate change. Instead of addressing the science of climate change presented by scientists, ignore the science completely because of a desire to believe that climate change is not happening. As if belief in something trumps actual knowledge of something.

Where do you get that anyone is accusing anyone of lying out of this? How do you conclude 'it's probable that aliens exist' out of a study saying it's "astronomically rare?" You're (incorrect usage of the word) "probability" is based on your desire that aliens exist and the questionable accuracy of people's sensory perception (people in general, not just those who claim sightings) who have claimed to see things in the sky that are, by definition, unidentifiable - nothing more. No quantifiable scientific data. UFO's do not equal aliens. It seems no different than someone who believes in God because they want to believe in God, and because of that belief try to mistakenly assign mathematical/scientific probability to the existence of God. Nothing wrong with faith, but faith is no basis for probability. Where do you get that anyone is trying to "disprove" the existence of life outside of Earth when they say "However, we *also* conclude that we shouldn’t be too surprised if we find intelligence!”

Relax. No one is trying to disprove the existence of aliens, since considering the size of the known universe it would be impossible to do so. I think it's possible that aliens exist, but the science right now says it's not probable while not once claiming it's impossible. Quite the contrary if you'd bother to read and understand their conclusions.

You should stop trying to present these silly straw man arguments because you can't discuss what's being discussed -  the calculated probability that we are alone in the universe. "Sad commentary if we are the pinnacle" and other emotion based arguments have zero effect on whether we are alone or not and zero to do with how probability is calculated. 

As I've done in the past when you've made completely false accusations, I'll pay you S./ 5000 if you can link to where I said or the scientists in the link I provided have tried to disprove the existence of aliens or claimed that anyone who claims to have seen a UFO is a liar of delusional as opposed to discussing the probability of life outside of Earth. I'm confident I won't have to pay out because you've never once taken me up on my offer of giving you free money to simply back up your accusations or show where they've come from. Not once. Why? Because you can't back up you straw man accusations.

“If we instead try to review the scientific knowledge, things get even more extreme. This is because the probability of getting life and intelligence on a planet has an *extreme* uncertainty given what we know – we cannot rule out that it happens nearly everywhere there is the right conditions, but we cannot rule out that it is astronomically rare. This leads to an even stronger uncertainty about the number of civilizations, drawing us to conclude that there is a fairly high likelihood that we are alone. However, we *also* conclude that we shouldn’t be too surprised if we find intelligence!”

In the end, the team’s conclusions do not mean that humanity is alone in the Universe, or that the odds of finding evidence of extra-terrestrial civilizations (both past and present) is unlikely. Instead, it simply means that we can say with greater confidence – based on what we know – that humanity is most likely the only intelligent species in the Milky Way Galaxy at present.